Amid claims that over 20 countries have expressed support for Raila Odinga’s bid for a prominent international position, analysts caution that Kenya must tread carefully. The caution comes from the recent memory of former Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Amina Mohammed’s failed bid for the African Union Commission Chair in 2017, despite assurances from over 50 countries.
During the administration of former President Uhuru Kenyatta, Amina Mohammed’s campaign was met with high expectations, buoyed by widespread promises of support. However, when the votes were cast, it became clear that Kenya had overestimated its backing. Amina ultimately lost to Moussa Faki Mahamat of Chad, a result that shocked many within Kenya’s diplomatic circles. Notably, some East African Community (EAC) members, including Uganda and Tanzania, were among those who did not support Amina’s bid.
International affairs commentators argue that Kenya must carefully assess what went wrong in Amina’s campaign to avoid repeating the same mistakes. The situation underscores the importance of not taking diplomatic support for granted and the need to solidify commitments before the actual vote.
As Raila’s campaign progresses, Kenya must engage in thorough diplomatic outreach, ensuring that promised support is genuine and that regional allies, particularly within the EAC, are firmly on board. Failure to do so could result in another embarrassing diplomatic defeat, further complicating Kenya’s efforts on the international stage.
By Nairobi