The race for the presidential seat is taking shape with only 13 months left to the polls. President William Ruto is seeking a second term while the opposition is consulting among themselves before they settle on one candidate.
Due to the current political alignments, there are regions that are more inclined to the government, others are backing the opposition, while some regions are considered battlegrounds.
There are 13 counties where the opposition is likely to outsmart President William Ruto. These counties are located in Central, Eastern, Nyanza, Nairobi, and Rift Valley.
1. Central
The five counties that make up Central include Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, and Nyandarua. The region is dominated by the Kikuyu community. The community recognizes the former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua as their kingpin.
Because Gachagua is in the opposition, he is expected to rally the majority of the Kikuyu community behind the candidate that will be unveiled by the opposition as their flag bearer.
2. Eastern
In the Eastern region, Machakos, Makueni, and Kitui are the strongholds of Kalonzo Musyoka. Kalonzo is expected to rally the three counties behind the opposition.
3. Nyanza
In the Nyanza region, the opposition is likely to get the majority of votes in Kisii and Nyamira counties. The two counties are dominated by the Abagusii tribe who are currently following Fred Matiang’i.
Matiang’i is a key figure in the opposition and also a potential presidential candidate. He will definitely deliver the majority of votes from the two counties to the opposition.
4. Nairobi
The Kikuyu community is the single ethnic group with the highest number of votes in the capital. They are followed by the Luhya, Luo, and Kamba in the same order.
The Kikuyu and Kamba are largely in the opposition while most Luos are supporting the government. The Luhya are neutral and could split their votes between the opposition and government.
The Kikuyu, Kamba, and a portion of the Luhya votes could give the opposition candidate a win in Nairobi County.
5. Rift Valley
The two counties in the Rift Valley where the opposition might perform well are Nakuru and Laikipia. The Kikuyu make up more than 50% of the population of both Nakuru and Laikipia. Just like in Central, the Kikuyu in Nakuru and Laikipia are likely to follow Gachagua and vote for the opposition.
Note that these may not be the only counties where the opposition could outsmart the broad-based government. There are some battlegrounds where they can get a majority of votes but are still far from being predictable.