Kenyans waiting for the October to December rains may have to endure more dry weather. The Kenya Meteorological Department says atmospheric conditions over the Indian Ocean have disrupted the movement of rain-bearing systems across the country.
Director of Public Weather Services Hannah Kimani explained the delay in an interview on Wednesday October 21. She said low-pressure systems over the northern Indian Ocean temporarily stopped the southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This zone is a major driver of rainfall during the short-rains season.
Some areas began receiving rain as early as September while others recorded the onset in the first week of October. The delay has been most noticeable in parts of central and eastern Kenya where residents expected the rains to spread gradually.
Kimani said the Indian Ocean had not developed the conditions needed to sustain the expected rainfall in some areas. Mandera and Marsabit and Nyeri and Meru recorded the onset of rain as expected.
Expectations had been high because El Niño was projected to boost rainfall across East Africa. A FEWS NET report published on October 6 said the 2026-2027 El Niño had strengthened to very strong levels. Combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole it is expected to bring above-average rainfall to the Greater Horn of Africa.
Kimani cautioned that a seasonal forecast does not mean rain will fall continuously or start at the same time everywhere. Kenya Met is also monitoring a tropical storm in the Indian Ocean. It could either bring rain or divert rain-bearing systems away from the country.
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