he World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the developing El Niño weather phenomenon could reach unprecedented strength towards the end of 2026, raising concerns about possible flooding, drought and extreme temperatures in different parts of the world.
In a statement released on Wednesday, October 21, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the phenomenon was expected to peak around December 2026, although its effects could continue well into 2027.
According to the organisation’s latest seasonal climate outlook, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean could rise to 3.8 degrees Celsius above average between November 2026 and January 2027.
Saulo cautioned that the developing weather pattern could significantly disrupt normal rainfall and temperature patterns, with some regions experiencing heavy rainfall while others face prolonged dry conditions.
The WMO also warned that the effects could worsen existing humanitarian challenges, particularly in communities already struggling with food insecurity, water shortages and inadequate infrastructure.
Possible Impact on Kenya
Kenya and other parts of East Africa are among the regions facing increased chances of above-average rainfall during the October to December short-rains season.
The forecast raises concerns about possible flooding, especially in low-lying areas and communities located near rivers. Heavy rainfall could also disrupt transport, damage property and affect agricultural activities.
Farmers have been urged to pay attention to official weather forecasts and prepare for changing conditions that could affect planting, harvesting and livestock management.
However, the WMO has cautioned that seasonal forecasts indicate probabilities rather than guaranteeing specific weather events in particular locations.
The Kenya Meteorological Department remains an important source of local forecasts and advisories that can help communities prepare for potential weather-related risks.
The WMO has called on governments, humanitarian organisations and communities to use early-warning information to reduce the impact of extreme weather.
Although the peak is expected towards the end of 2026, the organisation emphasised that preparedness should continue into 2027 because the consequences may persist after the phenomenon reaches its strongest point.