Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya is expected to defend his seat in the August 2027 general election. Natembeya is currently allied with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and is a key critic of President William Ruto and the broad-based government.
Although Natembeya is popular in Trans Nzoia, he might lose his seat if government-aligned leaders unite behind a single candidate against him. Here is why.
The Bukusu community forms a significant portion of Trans Nzoia’s electorate. Natembeya is likely to face former Health Cabinet Secretary Susan Nakhumicha, a UDA politician who has received the backing of National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula.
Wetang’ula is influential among the Bukusu, and his support could help Nakhumicha attract a significant share of their votes. This will make her split Bukusu vote with Natembeya in the gubernatorial race.
The Kalenjin community is another important voting bloc in Trans Nzoia, accounting for almost a third of the county’s electorate. If President Ruto directs Kalenjin voters to support a UDA candidate, Nakhumicha could benefit from their backing.
If Nakhumicha secures a significant share of the Bukusu vote and consolidates support among Kalenjin voters, she could pose a serious challenge to Natembeya. Remaining in the opposition could therefore cost Natembeya more politically than joining the government and receiving Ruto’s backing.