Farmers will receive a much-needed boost this week as light rains return to several regions where crops had begun to wilt after weeks of dry weather.
The Kenya Meteorological Department said rainfall was expected between Tuesday and next Monday in counties around the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Rift Valley and the Coast.
These regions comprise the counties of Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Nandi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and Elgeyo Marakwet.
Others are West Pokot, Nakuru and Narok, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Nyandarua and Laikipia.
Acting Met director Edward Muriuki said the rain has slowly been increasing since mid June.
“Comparing the June 15th to 21st and June 22nd to 28th review periods, it is noted rainfall amounts increased in some parts of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley and decreased at the Coast,” he said in a statement.
The new forecast offers welcome news for farmers whose crops have been struggling after a prolonged dry spell that has affected many parts of the country since the long rains season began winding down.
The weatherman said cool and cloudy conditions will accompany the rainfall in some areas.
“Intermittent cool and cloudy conditions are expected in some parts of the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Southeastern Lowlands, the Rift Valley and Northeastern Kenya,” the department said.
For western Kenya and the Rift Valley, residents should expect a mixture of sunshine and rain during the week.
“Occasional rains are expected in the morning. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur over few places. Nights are expected to be partly cloudy but there is a possibility of a few places receiving showers.”
In Nairobi and counties around Mt Kenya, mornings are expected to be chilly and cloudy before sunny intervals develop later in the day.
Along the Coast, including Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale and Lamu, residents should expect mostly sunny conditions, although rain showers could occur in some areas.
“Morning and afternoon showers may occur over few places during forecast period,” Muriuki said.
Despite the expected light rains this week, weather experts are warning Kenyans not to expect a wet July.
Regional forecasts indicate the rainfall expected over the next few days is likely to be short-lived, with much of the country facing drier-than-normal conditions through July and possibly into August and September.
The latest outlook from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre forecasts below-normal rainfall across large parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, including western Kenya.
The regional climate centre said July would be drier than usual over western Kenya, while coastal Kenya remains one of the few areas likely to receive above-normal rainfall.
The warning echoes an earlier forecast by the Kenya Meteorological Department, which said the country should prepare for three largely dry months before El Niño-related rains arrive in October.
Last month, Muriuki said June, July and August would generally be dry across most of Kenya despite increasing chances of El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean.
“The next three months will be largely dry before El Niño rains arrive toward the end of the year,” he said.
Muriuki noted although there was an 80 to 82 per cent chance of El Niño conditions occurring during June, July and August, the enhanced rainfall normally associated with the phenomenon would most likely be felt in October.
“The enhanced rainfall, common during El Niño, would occur during the October, November and December seasons,” he said.
Muriuki also said the Kenya Meteorological Department is monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole, another climate driver that plays a major role in determining how much rain Kenya receives.
“KMD is also closely monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole signal, which modulates the effect of El Niño in Kenya,” he said.
Weather experts say a positive Indian Ocean Dipole developing alongside El Niño later in the year could significantly increase rainfall during the October to December short rains season.
For now, however, farmers are being advised to make the most of this week’s showers because the broader outlook still points to a hotter and drier July across most parts of the country.