The October to December short-rains season is getting under way, and the Kenya Meteorological Department says a number of counties could see rain over the weekend.
The rains support crops, pasture and water supplies in many dry areas, and the department has forecast above-average rainfall for much of the country. The start and spread of the rains will, however, differ by region.
The World Meteorological Organization has also warned that a strengthening El Niño is likely to influence weather patterns in the coming months.
Rainfall is expected in parts of Nairobi, Kiambu, Embu, Meru, Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Nakuru, Kisumu, Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Kisii, Mombasa and Garissa.
The department said some of these counties will get showers while others remain sunny. Its weekly forecast adds that the Coast, including Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Tana River and Lamu, could see morning showers.
Western counties such as Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Kisumu, Siaya and Trans Nzoia are likely to have afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Despite the rain, the heat will persist in northern and eastern Kenya. Average daytime temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius are expected in parts of Garissa, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo, Kilifi, Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana.
Lodwar is forecast to reach 38 degrees and Mandera 37 degrees, after Lodwar recorded a high of 38.2 degrees on October 14.
Kenya Meteorological Department deputy director Kennedy Thiong’o advised farmers to rely on local weather updates when deciding when to plant. He said county-specific forecasts can be obtained from the offices of county directors of meteorological services.
Beyond Kenya’s borders, the Tanzania Meteorological Authority said it is monitoring a low-pressure system in the Indian Ocean that could develop into a tropical cyclone within four days.
If that happens, rainfall along the Tanzanian coast could increase from October 24. The Kenya Meteorological Service has yet to comment on the development, while Seychelles has issued a tropical cyclone alert.