Make, And How Tiz The Law Will Stalk The Win
“He’s fast,” said ultra-crusty star trainer Barclay Tagg of Tiz The Law, his 2020 Belmont Stakes contender, “that’s what it comes down to. A fast horse is a unique one.”
Our beloved gimlet-eyed Las Vegas, London, and New York Racing Association oddsmakers seem to agree. In the NYRA’s morning line, Tiz The Law, who drew the 8-hole on Wednesday in New York, is perched low at 6-5, or a 45.45% probability of winning, which odds look to get ratcheted lower (producing a higher probability of winning) tomorrow as the money starts to talk at the virtual “track.” As they always do, the no-nonsense London bookmakers have sliced the favorite considerably finer: Bet365, Paddy Power, and Betfair all have Tiz The Law at 8/11, or with a 57.89% probability of winning, while Coral have him at an outright 4/5. with a 55.55% probability of getting his name engraved on the sterling silver Belmont jug.
In general, of course, every set of odds has a quotient of Einstein’s Theory of General Relativity in it: it’s a numerical assessment of the horses relative to one another. This Belmont’s morning line is a sober reflection of the strength and apparent speed of Tiz the Law, but the low-ness of the favorite’s low also strongly reflects a judgement of the lack of experience and strength in what we might diplomatically call this year’s extremely uneven field.
But before we bring in the Bluegrass Wise Man, who has been unstintingly generous with his Kentucky-bred horse sense and his unsparing horseman’s eye for us in many Triple Crown seasons past, here is the NYRA’s own Einsteinian estimate of the field in full, in order of post position.
