The decision to strengthen the Mount Kenya communities’ alliance—Gikuyu, Embu, and Meru (GEMA)—by incorporating the Kamba community may pose a political challenge to Kenya Kwanza while potentially dividing the country into two major political blocs, particularly if the ODM party supports President William Ruto in the upcoming general election.
In the 2022 election, President Ruto received more than 4 million votes from Mount Kenya but did not obtain votes from the three Ukambani counties of Machakos, Kitui, and Makueni, each of which had nearly 2 million voters. These counties overwhelmingly supported Raila Odinga and the Azimio la Umoja coalition.
The removal of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Ruto’s running mate, suggests a possible political schism in Mount Kenya. Meanwhile, Ruto has strengthened ties with Raila Odinga, his primary opponent in the 2022 elections.
Prominent ODM members nominated to cabinet positions in Ruto’s Cabinet, including former ODM chairman John Mbadi (now Finance Minister), have pledged to support Ruto’s reelection if Raila Odinga does not run. Ruto supports Raila, a candidate for the African Union Commission’s (AUC) chairmanship.
The declaration this week of the “New GEMA” alliance, which aims to unify communities from Mount Kenya and Eastern Kenya, has paved the way for substantial political developments in 2027.
Analysts are concerned that this might imperil Ruto’s domination, as he risks losing the more than 4 million votes he earned in Mount Kenya in 2022.
Speakers at the GEMA’s opening ceremony asked the Mount Kenya and Eastern Kenya communities to collaborate to increase their political power. Historical feelings were also resurrected, with some urging Kalonzo to support former President Mwai Kibaki during the 2007 political turmoil.
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo declared his desire to establish a strong alliance with GEMA and other communities to replace the current administration.
GEMA’s long-time administrator, Joseph Kaguthi, emphasized that the organization promotes inclusive collaborations to address the nation’s key challenges.
Analysts predict the establishment of two major political blocs: one for Western Kenya, the Rift Valley, and Nyanza, and another for Mount Kenya and Eastern Kenya.
According to political analyst Dr. Isaac Gichuki, if such a coalition forms and lasts until 2027, the election will be highly competitive.
By kenyans