Former United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi has delivered a sobering analysis of Raila Odinga’s bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson seat. Speaking candidly, Kituyi painted a grim picture of Raila’s chances, citing Africa’s intricate geopolitical dynamics that heavily favor other candidates.
According to Kituyi, the path to clinching the AUC seat is shaped by the dominance of Francophone countries. With 29 member states, the Francophone bloc constitutes a significant majority in the African Union. Historically, these nations rally behind candidates from their own group, making it nearly impossible for a candidate from an Anglophone nation, such as Raila, to gain their support. The Djibouti candidate, a representative of the Francophone community, appears to have the upper hand in this race.
Kituyi further explained that religious affiliations play a crucial role in influencing voting patterns within the African Union. Among the member states, 15 are predominantly Muslim, and they traditionally back candidates who share their faith. This dynamic again works in favor of the Djibouti candidate, who aligns with these preferences.
Adding to the complexities, Kituyi highlighted the sway held by the South African President, a key figure in the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Known for influencing the voting patterns of member states, the South African leader often aligns with the broader African consensus, which, in this case, is likely to favor the Francophone bloc.
Kituyi’s remarks were blunt: “The AUC seat is already gone to Djibouti. Raila’s pursuit of this position is like the kicks of a dying horse. The African dynamics simply don’t favor him.”
This assessment sheds light on the regional, linguistic, and religious intricacies that shape African Union politics. While Raila’s quest for the AUC seat might symbolize ambition and resilience, the odds appear insurmountable in the face of established geopolitical realities.
By Creatorhub