Kenya’s 2027 presidential election is expected to rely heavily on regional and ethnic voting blocs. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua may be considering reviving the Gikuyu, Embu, and Meru Association which is popularly known as the GEMA movement.
With Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka taking an active part in the political game, Gachagua may create a new political movement to unite the Gikuyu, Embu, Meru, and Kamba communities (GEMEKA).
Gachagua’s goal is to challenge his former boss William Ruto’s leadership and possibly unseat him in the 2027 general elections. However, this plan faces significant hurdles due to divisions within the Mt. Kenya region and President William Ruto’s growing alliances.
The Mt. Kenya voting bloc is not as unified as it used to be. While parts of the Kikuyu community have criticized Ruto, the Embu and Meru communities are supportive, especially with Deputy President Kithure Kindiki hailing from the region.
This loyalty makes it difficult for Gachagua to rally Mt. Kenya entirely against Ruto. Even with the inclusion of the Kamba community under Kalonzo Musyoka, their influence might not be enough without support from other regions.
Ruto, on the other hand, appears to have solidified his position. In 2022, he won with strong support from Rift Valley, Mt. Kenya, and Western Kenya. By 2027, he is likely to maintain his grip on these regions while gaining additional backing from North Eastern, Coast, and sections of Nyanza.
This is due to his new political alliance with the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader the Rt. Hon. Raila Odinga. Kalonzo’s influence mostly remains limited to the Kamba region and parts of Nairobi, which weakens his chances of building a national coalition.
A successful presidential candidate should secure votes from at least three major regions. With President Ruto’s broad support across the country and his ongoing outreach efforts, he is the frontrunner for 2027. Kalonzo’s limited appeal outside his home base and Gachagua’s divided bloc reduce their chances of mounting a serious challenge against Ruto’s re-election bid.
By Nairobi