The World Meteorological Organization has issued an updated forecast confirming that El Nino is now firmly established and is expected to intensify into a very strong event over the coming months.
The global weather body says the phenomenon is likely to persist through February 2027, based on current climate modeling.
According to the WMO, forecasts now show close to a one hundred percent likelihood that El Nino conditions will remain in place through the specified period, reinforcing earlier warnings issued by various governments, including Kenya, over the anticipated impact of the weather pattern.
The organization’s latest update provides a clearer timeline for how long the phenomenon is expected to last.
The WMO cautioned that while El Nino is expected to reach very strong intensity, its impacts will not be uniform across all regions.
The organization emphasized that a very strong El Nino event does not necessarily translate into the same weather outcomes everywhere, meaning different countries and regions could experience varying effects even as the overall global pattern intensifies.
The update comes shortly after Kenya’s government activated preparedness measures in anticipation of above normal rainfall linked to El Nino, with local authorities placing the probability of the phenomenon occurring in the country at above ninety percent.
The WMO’s confirmation adds further weight to those earlier warnings, providing a longer term outlook for how the weather pattern is expected to evolve.
With the phenomenon now expected to persist well into early 2027, Kenyans have been urged to remain alert and continue following guidance from relevant government agencies as preparations continue.
Authorities are expected to provide further updates on region specific impacts as the El Nino event continues to develop over the coming months in line with the latest global forecasts.