The next three months will be largely dry before El Niño rains arrive toward the end of the year, the weatherman predicts.
Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward Muriuki said although there is an 80 to 82 per cent chance that El Niño conditions will be in place during June, July and August, these three months will be dry in most parts of Kenya, while western Kenya will have depressed rainfall.
He said the enhanced rainfall, common during El Niño, would occur during the October, November and December seasons.
He explained El Niño does not influence the weather in Kenya in isolation. “KMD is also closely monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) signal, which modulates the effect of El Niño in Kenya,” he said.
The IOD measures the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western (Kenyan side) and eastern tropical Indian Ocean.
When the western side of the Indian Ocean is warmer than the eastern side, a positive IOD occurs – and this is historically linked to heavy rains in Kenya during the October-November-December season.
A negative IOD, on the other hand, tends to suppress rains in Kenya.
The IOD is currently neutral, and most models indicate it is likely to remain neutral in June 2026, with a positive IOD event possible later in the year.
“The combined effects of El Niño and a positive IOD significantly influence rainfall patterns over Kenya, potentially leading to enhanced rainfall during the October November-December season. Updates on El Nino and IOD conditions will continue to be provided at monthly timescales or when required,” Muriuki said.
In a detailed weather forecast for the June-July-August forecast, Muriuki pointed to near-average to below-average rainfall across the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley and North-western Kenya.
“Most of the South-eastern lowlands and Northeastern region are expected to be generally sunny and dry,” the statement reads.
Temperatures will also be warmer than average across most of the country, which could be bad news for farmers and pastoralists who are already managing the tail end of the long rains season.
Muriuki said the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, will experience occasional cool and cloudy conditions with light rains, while the Coast is expected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall.
It is a mixed picture, but the dominant story is heat and dryness for most of the country.
Regional agencies are already watching closely. The 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, held in May, warned of conditions resembling the strong El Niño years of 1997 and 2023, when Kenya experienced heavy rains and flooding.
Scientists are warning that the 2026 event could match or surpass those historic episodes. Some international forecasts put the chance of a “super El Niño”, a record-breaking event.
The Met department says it will release the October-November-December national forecast in late August or early September 2026.
“Updates on El Niño and IOD conditions will continue to be provided at monthly timescales or when required,” Muriuki said.