Public confidence in Kenya’s direction has reached its lowest point in three years, according to a new national survey by the Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) Research Institute.
The poll paints a striking picture of a population that has grown increasingly pessimistic about the country’s trajectory, with negative sentiment climbing sharply since 2023 and hitting a new peak in 2026.
From Mixed Views to a Crisis of Confidence
The shift in public mood has been dramatic. In March 2023, 48% of respondents said Kenya was moving in the wrong direction, while 37% believed it was on the right track and 12% took a neutral position. Three months later, in June 2023, pessimism had already deepened, with 56% saying the country was headed the wrong way and only 25% expressing confidence in its direction.
A brief turnaround appeared in September 2023, when 49% of respondents said Kenya was moving in the right direction, compared with 36% who said it was not. That optimism, however, did not last.
By May 2025, the mood had darkened considerably. A striking 75% of respondents said Kenya was heading in the wrong direction, while just 14% believed it remained on course. The numbers stayed largely bleak through August and September 2025, when 62% still expressed negative views against 15% who remained positive.
November 2025 brought yet another dip, with 68% of respondents saying the country was on the wrong path and only 17% disagreeing.
The latest results, drawn from fieldwork conducted in May 2026, show little sign of recovery. A full 74% of Kenyans now believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. Just 14% said it was moving the right way, while 11% expressed uncertainty or took a neutral stance.
A Deep Mistrust in Key Institutions
The declining confidence in Kenya’s direction runs alongside a broader collapse in public trust toward the institutions meant to steer the country. TIFA’s second edition of the National Survey, which covered all 47 counties and involved 2,013 respondents, found that most Kenyans do not trust the country’s leading national institutions.
The presidency registered some of the starkest numbers. Forty-five percent of respondents said they distrust President William Ruto, while only 11% said they fully trust him.
The police fared similarly poorly, with 43% of respondents reporting a lack of trust in the force and just 8% saying they trust it. Parliament attracted nearly as much skepticism, with 42% expressing distrust and only 7% saying they have confidence in the Legislature.
Kenyans also expressed doubts about the institutions that oversee elections and justice. Forty-one percent said they lack confidence in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), compared with 10% who said they trust it. Meanwhile, 32% said they distrust the judiciary, while 11% said they have confidence in it.
Respondents pointed to failures across a range of policy areas as the reason for this erosion of trust. These include taxation, security, health, education, political stability, election preparedness, and the protection of human rights, areas that form the foundation of credible governance.