Kenya could face one of its strongest El Niño events in decades this year, with forecasters warning of heightened risks of heavy rainfall, flooding and widespread disruption if current projections hold.
Global models indicate a roughly 60 per cent probability that El Niño will develop between June and August 2026 and persist into 2027, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) placing the likelihood at 61 per cent for the May–July period.
The agency has also flagged a 25 per cent chance of a “very strong” event.
Australia’s meteorological authorities have issued a similar warning, noting the potential for one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with even a remote possibility of an unprecedented episode.
Locally, the Kenya Meteorological Department has projected a 58–61 per cent probability of El Niño conditions between June and December, signalling the likelihood of above-normal rainfall, particularly during the October–December short rains.
“This could enhance rainfall during the October–November–December short rains, but also raise risks of flooding in vulnerable river basins,” the department said.
While increased rainfall could boost agricultural production, benefiting crops such as maize and beans, experts warn the potential gains could be offset by the risk of floods, infrastructure damage and displacement.
Memories of the devastating 1997–1998 El Niño remain fresh, when prolonged rains triggered widespread flooding, destroyed roads and bridges, disrupted transport and displaced thousands of families, particularly in Coast, North Eastern and Eastern regions.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), however, has cautioned that forecasts at this stage remain uncertain, urging close monitoring of evolving conditions.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña help avert economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
The agency also warned that such climate events are now unfolding against the backdrop of global warming, which is intensifying extreme weather patterns and increasing the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures and rainfall.
As Kenya braces for the possibility of a powerful El Niño, the forecasts underscore the urgent need for early preparedness measures to mitigate potential disasters while maximising agricultural benefits.